Did poor polling lose Labor the Australian election?
With most pundits expecting the centre-left Labor Party to win last week's federal elections in Australia, how did Scott Morrison, the country's centre-right Prime Minister, manage to hang on to power?
An analysis from our Australian consultant, Lachlan Rule, indicates that Labor's defeat was due in part to flawed old-style opinion polls. These fooled the media into thinking Labor was heading for certain victory and more importantly, according to Lachlan, they also led to Labor strategists making poor campaign resource allocation decisions, which contributed to their loss of seats.
Morrison's centre-right coalition ran a well targeted and well resourced campaign. They strongly attacked Labor's leader, Bill Shorten, who's rebuttal operation appeared to be badly informed and ineffective. The ruling coalition also negotiated some preferential vote transfer deals with minor parties, especially in Queensland, which helped them cross the line in what was a close election.